Global Market Review: Macroeconomic Data, Policy Developments and Asset Performance
U.S. Market
U.S. Equities finished lower on the back of artificial intelligence (AI) concerns. Most notably, the majority tech-weighted Nasdaq Composite fell 2.10%. The broader S&P 500 Index and Dow Jones Industrial Average fell 1.39% and 1.23%, respectively. The S&P MidCap 400 Index held up best but still dropped 0.66%. The Russell 1000 Value Index outperformed its growth counterpart for the seventh consecutive week, extending its year-to-date lead to over 1,100 basis points (11.00 percentage points).
Jobs Report
U.S. job growth exceeded expectations in January, fresh data from the Bureau of Labor Statistics showed. The agency reported Wednesday that employers added 130,000 positions during the month — the strongest monthly increase in more than a year and comfortably above economists’ projections. The unemployment rate edged down to 4.3% from 4.4% in December.
The report also featured notable downward revisions to previous figures. Most significantly, total job growth for 2025 was revised sharply lower to 181,000 from the previously reported 584,000.
Despite those revisions, January’s stronger-than-anticipated performance reduced expectations for near-term interest rate cuts. According to the CME Group’s FedWatch tool, the likelihood that the Federal Reserve will hold rates steady through June climbed from roughly 25% on Tuesday to more than 40% following the release.
Separately, initial claims for unemployment benefits totaled 227,000 for the week ending February 7, down from a revised 232,000 the week prior.
| Index | Friday’s Close | Week’s Change | % Change YTD |
| S&P 500 | 6,836.17 | -96.13 | -0.14% |
| Nasdaq Composite | 22,546.67 | -484.54 | -2.99% |
| DJIA | 49,500.93 | -614.74 | 2.99% |
| S&P MidCap 400 | 3,563.45 | -23.56 | 7.82% |
| Russell 2000 | 2,646.70 | -23.64 | 6.64% |
Crypto
Cryptocurrencies remained under pressure this week, extending their recent weak performance. Bitcoin slid to roughly $65,000 on Thursday before recovering to around $70,000 later in the week, underscoring ongoing volatility across tokenised assets.
At the same time, Coinbase posted a fourth-quarter net loss of $667 million, primarily reflecting a $718 million unrealized loss on its investment portfolio. Lower trading activity during the quarter further weighed on the company’s revenue.
Investor sentiment also remained fragile. Spot Bitcoin ETFs saw $410 million in net outflows on Thursday (February 12), extending a difficult stretch that has resulted in nearly $1.5 billion being withdrawn over the past two weeks.
Europe
European equities were volatile this week, also facing AI concerns. Among major stock indices, Germany’s DAX rose 0.78%, Italy’s FTSE MIB declined 0.97%, and France’s CAC 40 Index gained 0.46%. The UK’s FTSE 100 Index added 0.74%.
The number of employed people in the euro area rose by 0.2% in the final quarter of 2025, a larger-than-expected increase. Job growth was particularly strong in Spain, up 0.8% from the third quarter. In contrast, German employment showed a small contraction.
In other jobs-related news, the unemployment rate in France rose to 7.9% in the fourth quarter of last year, its highest level since the third quarter of 2021. Unemployment among young people in the country was particularly high, with 21.5% of 15- to 24-year-olds classified as unemployed.
Japan
Japanese equities posted strong weekly gains, buoyed by political developments. Shares rallied after the February 8 lower house election delivered a decisive victory for Prime Minister Sanae Takaichi, whose Liberal Democratic Party captured a supermajority of more than two-thirds of parliamentary seats. Over the week, the Nikkei 225 climbed nearly 5%, while the broader TOPIX advanced just over 3%.
The sweeping result underscored voter support for Takaichi’s economic platform, which emphasizes robust fiscal stimulus, increased investment, and selective tax relief. The scale of the win also gives the government the political capital to pursue long-debated constitutional changes in Japan, including revisiting the pacifist clause for the first time since World War II—potentially paving the way for a substantial expansion in defense spending in the years ahead.
JGB yields
Japan’s financial markets were relatively steady following the election. The 10-year Japanese government bond yield settled near 1.23%, little changed from the previous week, as investors were reassured that the government’s proposed temporary food tax cut would be funded through spending adjustments and non-tax revenues rather than new debt issuance.
The yen strengthened to around JPY 153 per U.S. dollar from JPY 157, supported by renewed verbal intervention from Japanese authorities, who signaled continued vigilance in monitoring currency markets.
On the economic front, real wages slipped 0.1% year over year in December, missing expectations for growth and highlighting ongoing pressure from inflation, which continued to outpace nominal wage gains.
China
Chinese stocks finished the week on a strong note ahead of the Lunar New Year. The Shanghai Composite Index led the gains, rising 0.43%, while the CSI 300, China’s main onshore benchmark, increased 0.39%. Hong Kong’s Hang Seng Index remained largely unchanged.
Markets in China will be closed for the Lunar New Year holiday from February 16 through February 23, with trading set to resume on February 24. In Hong Kong, markets will operate for a half day on February 16 before closing for the holidays from February 17 to February 19.
China missed inflation forecasts this week with year-on-year CPI hitting 0.2% and y/y PPI being -1.4%. This means China is continuing to face deflationary pressures, with consumer prices rising less than expected and factory-gate prices remaining in contraction.
Disclaimer
This report has been prepared for information purposes only. It is not intended to be, and should not be relied on as, financial product advice, investment advice, legal advice, taxation advice or a recommendation. It does not take into account the objectives, financial situation or needs of any person. Before acting on any information in this report, consider its appropriateness and seek independent professional advice where necessary.
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