Market Recap
Executive Summary
Global markets experienced heightened volatility during the week ending 13 March 2026 as escalating geopolitical tensions in the Middle East dominated investor sentiment. Concerns over potential supply disruptions through the Strait of Hormuz—a critical energy shipping lane—contributed to significant moves in oil prices. Equity markets broadly declined across most regions, with U.S. and European indexes underperforming amid growth and inflation considerations. Asian markets showed mixed performance, with China relatively resilient amid domestic policy signals. With regional tensions ongoing, investors are assessing the implications for energy costs, inflation trajectories, and central bank policy paths.
Market Snapshot
Weekly performance across major global indices (week ending 13th March 2026):
| Index | Friday’s Closing Price | Weekly Change | Direction |
| DJIA | 46558.47 | -1.99% | ▼ |
| S&P 500 | 6,623.19 | -1.6% | ▼ |
| NASDAQ Composite | 22105.36 | -1.26% | ▼ |
| FTSE 100 (UK) | 10,305.20 | 0.2% | ▲ |
| CAC 40 (France) | 7911.53 | -1.03% | ▼ |
| STOXX Europe 600 | 595.85 | -0.47% | ▼ |
| Nikkei 225 (Japan) | 53,819.61 | -3.24% | ▼ |
| CSI 300 (China) | 4669.14 | 0.19% | ▲ |
| Hang Seng (Hong Kong) | 25465.6 | -1.13% | ▼ |
| Brent Crude | 103.14 / bbl | 11.27% | ▲ |
| Gold | 5052.5 / oz | -1.82% | ▼ |
Foreign Exchange
(For the week ending 13th March 2026)
| Pair | Friday’s Close | Week’s Change |
| EUR/USD | 1.1522 | -0.0074 (-0.74%) |
| USD/JPY | 159.206 | 0.0106 (1.06%) |
| GBP/USD | 1.3353 | -0.0003 (-0.03%) |
| USD/CHF | 0.7853 | 0.0059 (0.59%) |
| AUD/USD | 0.7075 | 0.0091 (0.91%) |
U.S. Markets Overview
Equities and Economic Data
For the third consecutive week, broad U.S. equity markets retreated, with investor sentiment heavily influenced by geopolitical developments in the Middle East and associated energy market fluctuations. The Dow Jones Industrial Average (-1.99%) and S&P MidCap 400 (-2.03%) recorded the largest declines, whereas the Nasdaq Composite (-1.26%) showed relative stability despite finishing lower.
Economic releases provided conflicting signals; core inflation persisted at elevated levels, and Q4 GDP growth estimates were revised downward due to weaker trade and consumer spending. Housing metrics indicated slight improvements in affordability and sales, though overall activity remains subdued compared to pre-pandemic levels.
Fixed Income
U.S. Treasuries posted negative returns as yields climbed across most maturities, driven by inflation data and geopolitical risk premiums. Investment-grade corporate bonds lagged behind Treasuries during a period of notable issuance activity. High-yield markets saw increased volatility, reflecting sensitivity to macroeconomic headlines and shifts in energy prices.
European Markets
With heightened uncertainty, the pan-European STOXX Europe 600 (-0.47%) Index finished the week lower. Investor attention remained focused on three key variables: the potential longevity of Middle East geopolitical tensions, the direction of energy prices, and the subsequent implications for regional economic expansion. In terms of individual markets, France’s CAC 40 (-1.03%) and Germany’s DAX (-0.61%) experienced more pronounced declines, whereas Italy’s FTSE MIB (+0.37%) demonstrated comparatively stronger performance.
From a policy perspective, European Central Bank communications highlighted a commitment to addressing any inflationary pressures that may emerge from elevated energy costs, while also noting that the region’s economic framework is better equipped to handle such shocks compared to previous episodes. On the data front, indicators such as factory orders and industrial production pointed to softness, reinforcing cautious sentiment regarding near-term growth prospects.
Asian Markets
Japan
Japanese equities retreated during the week, with both the Nikkei 225 (-3.24%) and the broader TOPIX Index (-2.36%) finishing in negative territory. Market participants closely tracked energy developments, reflecting Japan’s significant dependence on oil imports from the Middle East. The yen depreciated slightly versus the U.S. dollar, while yields on Japanese government bonds edged upward, influenced by inflation expectations and currency dynamics. Official statements suggested policymakers remain vigilant and prepared to act should currency volatility become excessive.
China
Chinese equity markets showed mixed performance, with the onshore CSI 300 Index (+0.19%) edging slightly higher while the Shanghai Composite and Hong Kong’s Hang Seng Index declined. Consumer inflation accelerated to its fastest pace in over three years, supported by holiday-related demand. Export data for the January-February period showed strong growth, though combined reporting periods may smooth Lunar New Year-related distortions. Policy signals from the National People’s Congress outlined growth targets and fiscal support measures for the year ahead.
Commodities
Oil
Crude oil benchmarks recorded one of their most substantial weekly advances on record, driven by heightened geopolitical risks affecting supply routes through the Strait of Hormuz. Both Brent and WTI contracts rallied sharply on concerns regarding potential interruptions to maritime shipping. While coordinated announcements regarding strategic petroleum reserve releases were made by major consuming nations, markets continued to factor in a meaningful geopolitical risk premium to prices.
Gold
Gold prices softened modestly over the week, as strength in the U.S. dollar partially offset demand for safe-haven assets. Not withstanding the weekly decline, gold remains considerably higher year-to-date, underscoring its continued role as a portfolio diversifier during periods of elevated market uncertainty.
Regional Summary
| Region | Summary |
| United States | Third weekly decline; geopolitics/energy volatility weigh. Core PCE ticks higher; Q4 GDP revised down. Housing: modest improvement, activity still subdued. |
| Europe | STOXX 600 slips; energy supply concerns dominate. ECB signals inflation vigilance. Industrial data mixed across regions. |
| Japan | Nikkei 225 down; energy import risks in focus. Yen weakens vs USD; JGB yields edge higher. BoJ retains conditional policy stance. |
| China | CSI 300 edges up; mixed onshore/HK performance. Inflation accelerates; exports show strength. NPC outlines 2026 growth targets. |
| Commodities | Brent surges on supply route concerns. Gold dips modestly; YTD gains intact. |
| Crypto | Digital asset markets showed volatility during the period. ETF flow data was observed by market participants. |
Week Ahead
Markets are likely to remain sensitive to developments in the Middle East, particularly regarding the status of energy shipping routes and any signals of de-escalation. Key data releases in the U.S. and Europe will be scrutinized for insights into inflation persistence and growth momentum amid elevated energy costs. Central bank commentary will be closely watched for indications of policy responses to the evolving macro backdrop. Investors may anticipate continued volatility as the situation develops.
Disclaimer
This report has been prepared for information purposes only. It is not intended to be, and should not be relied on as, financial product advice, investment advice, legal advice, taxation advice or a recommendation. It does not take into account the objectives, financial situation or needs of any person. Before acting on any information in this report, consider its appropriateness and seek independent professional advice where necessary.
The information in this report is based on sources believed to be reliable at the time of publication, including third-party data. Still, no representation or warranty (express or implied) is made as to its accuracy, completeness or timeliness. Market prices, statistics and commentary are subject to change without notice. Past performance is not a reliable indicator of future performance. Any forward-looking statements are subject to risks and uncertainties and actual outcomes may differ materially.
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