Executive Summary
Global equity markets delivered a divergent performance over the week ending 24 April 2026, as a historic surge in U.S. semiconductor stocks — driven by Intel’s blowout Q1 2026 earnings — lifted the S&P 500 and Nasdaq to fresh record closes, even as European equities suffered their worst weekly performance since the conflict began. The DJIA declined modestly, reflecting how narrowly gains were concentrated.
The geopolitical backdrop remained volatile. President Trump extended the ceasefire indefinitely on Tuesday 21 April at Pakistan’s request, awaiting Iran’s unified proposal, while ordering the U.S. naval blockade to remain in place. Within hours of the extension, Iran attacked three commercial ships in the Strait of Hormuz on Wednesday. Over the weekend, Trump cancelled planned talks in Islamabad, citing Iranian governmental confusion. The IMO reported approximately 20,000 mariners and 2,000 ships remain stranded in the Persian Gulf. Brent crude surged 12.76% on the week to close at $101.91/bbl. European hard data deteriorated sharply: Germany’s Ifo Business Climate fell to its lowest since May 2020, Germany halved its 2026 GDP forecast, and the eurozone’s Composite PMI slipped into contraction for the first time since late 2024.
Market Snapshot
Weekly performance across major global indices (week ending 24 April 2026). Note: Friday’s closing prices are stated below. Geopolitical developments — including continued Strait of Hormuz disruptions and stalled US–Iran negotiations — mean current market conditions may evolve materially from these levels.
| Index | Friday’s Closing Price | Weekly Change (%) | Direction |
| DJIA | 49,230.71 | -0.44 | ▼ |
| S&P 500 | 7,165.08 | 0.55 | ▲ |
| NASDAQ Composite | 24,836.60 | 1.5 | ▲ |
| FTSE 100 (UK) | 10,379.08 | -2.7 | ▼ |
| CAC 40 (France) | 8,157.82 | -3.17 | ▼ |
| STOXX Europe 600 | 610.65 | -2.54 | ▼ |
| Nikkei 225 (Japan) | 60,209.53 | 2.96 | ▲ |
| CSI 300 (China) | 4,769.37 | 0.86 | ▲ |
| Hang Seng (Hong Kong) | 25,978.07 | -0.7 | ▼ |
| Brent Crude | 101.91 | 12.76 | ▲ |
| Gold | 4712.2 | -2.99 | ▼ |
Foreign Exchange
(For the week ending 24 April 2026)
| Pair | Friday’s Close | Week’s Change |
| EUR/USD | 1.1684 | -0.0099 (-0.84%) |
| USD/JPY | 159.747 | 0.552 (0.35%) |
| GBP/USD | 1.3466 | -0.006 (-0.44%) |
| USD/CHF | 0.7862 | 0.003 (0.38%) |
| AUD/USD | 0.713 | -0.0029 (-0.41%) |
U.S. Markets Overview
Equities and Earnings
U.S. equity markets posted a modest but historically significant week, as an extraordinary semiconductor earnings event more than offset renewed geopolitical uncertainty and sector-specific softness. The S&P 500 gained 0.55% to a fresh record close, and the Nasdaq Composite surged 1.50% to its own all-time high, driven by one of the most dramatic single-stock events of the year. The DJIA slipped 0.44%, reflecting the market’s increasingly concentrated performance around the technology and semiconductor complex.
The week’s defining event was Intel’s Q1 2026 earnings report, released after Thursday’s close. The company reported revenue of $13.6 billion — well above consensus, and adjusted EPS of $0.29 against an estimate of just $0.01. Intel shares surged 24% on Friday, their best single-day performance since 1987, propelling the stock to a new record high and extending its year-to-date gain to over 100%. Fellow chipmakers AMD and Nvidia gained approximately 14% and 4.32% respectively. Intel’s data centre and AI segment grew 22% year over year to $5.1 billion, and CEO Lip-Bu Tan described the CPU as the “indispensable foundation of the AI era.”
Markets opened cautiously on Monday following the prior weekend’s renewed Strait of Hormuz escalation, before recovering mid-week on the ceasefire extension and strong earnings. Late-week trading was dominated by the Intel-driven semiconductor surge.
Post-Close Developments (Weekend, 25–27 April)
The geopolitical situation grew more complex over the weekend. On Saturday, President Trump cancelled a planned trip by senior envoys Steve Witkoff and Jared Kushner to Islamabad for peace talks with Iranian officials, citing too much “infighting and confusion” within Iran’s leadership. Trump posted on Truth Social that “too much time wasted on traveling, too much work.” Oil prices rose approximately 2% on Sunday night, with Brent approaching $107/bbl, as the collapse of planned talks removed a potential diplomatic catalyst.
Economic Data
The economic backdrop was broadly firm but with some cautionary signals. U.S. retail sales surged 1.7% month over month in March, the strongest monthly increase since early 2023, driven largely by a 15.5% jump in gasoline station sales — a reflection of elevated energy prices rather than underlying consumer strength. Initial jobless claims for the week ending 18 April rose 6,000 to 214,000, modestly above the 210,000 consensus estimate, though the four-week moving average edged up only slightly to 210,750, suggesting labour market conditions remain broadly stable.
Fixed Income
U.S. Treasuries were under modest pressure for much of the week, as elevated oil prices reinforced inflation concerns and limited the scope for yield declines. The 2-year Treasury yield gave back nearly half of a three-week decline that had built on ceasefire optimism and falling oil prices. Markets continue to price a Fed on hold, with the CME FedWatch tool showing a near-99% probability of rates remaining at 3.50–3.75% at the April/May FOMC meeting. The DOJ dropping its Powell investigation and the Warsh succession timeline are expected to be discussed at Powell’s final press conference this coming Wednesday.
European Markets
Pan-European equities suffered their worst weekly performance since the Iran conflict began, with the STOXX Europe 600 declining 2.54% in local currency terms. Germany’s DAX fell 2.32%, France’s CAC 40 declined 3.17%, Italy’s FTSE MIB fell 2.48%, and the UK’s FTSE 100 dropped 2.70%. Traditionally defensive sectors — utilities and telecoms — outperformed, while energy-intensive sectors and industrials bore the brunt.
The macro deterioration was stark. The German Ifo Business Climate Index fell to 84.4 in April, its lowest reading since May 2020 at the onset of COVID-19, and below the market consensus of 85.5. Both current conditions and future expectations deteriorated, with manufacturing, trade and construction registering the sharpest declines. Germany’s government halved its 2026 GDP growth forecast to 0.5%. The eurozone’s S&P Global Composite PMI slipped to 48.6 in April, from 50.7 in March — the first reading below the 50 growth threshold since late 2024 — driven by a collapse in services activity to 47.4, its weakest since late 2023. French consumer confidence deteriorated by more than expected to its lowest level in almost three years. UK retail sales outperformed at +0.7% MoM, well above the 0.1% estimate.
Asian Markets
Japan
The Nikkei 225 gained 2.96% to close at 60,209.53 — a fresh all-time high — as AI and semiconductor enthusiasm, solid earnings expectations and export data supported the advance. Japan’s exports rose for a seventh consecutive month in March, with a trade surplus of 667 billion yen. The Japan Bank for International Cooperation announced a 600 billion yen investment window to help Asian countries secure alternative energy supplies, underscoring the structural energy security challenge. Bank of Japan Governor Kazuo Ueda noted the central bank must account for Japan’s low real rates when setting policy, providing a slight hawkish tilt ahead of the BoJ’s April meeting.
China
The CSI 300 rose 0.86% and the Shanghai Composite edged 0.70% higher, while Hong Kong’s Hang Seng declined 0.70%. The People’s Bank of China held its benchmark lending rates unchanged for an 11th consecutive month in April — the one-year LPR at 3.0% and the five-year rate at 3.5% — reflecting confidence in the near-term growth trajectory following the strong Q1 GDP print. China’s industrial profits accelerated to +15.8% year over year in March, from +15.2% in the first two months of the year. Sentiment remained cautious, however, as elevated global oil prices present a growing headwind for the world’s largest energy importer.
Commodities
Oil
Brent crude surged 12.76% on the week to close at $101.91/bbl — a significant rebound from the prior week’s temporary trough following Iran’s Hormuz opening announcement. The ceasefire extension on Tuesday maintained the U.S. naval blockade and failed to restore shipping traffic. Iran attacked three commercial vessels in the Strait on Wednesday. The International Maritime Organization reported approximately 20,000 mariners and 2,000 ships remain stranded in the Persian Gulf. The IEA has characterised the disruption as the largest energy supply shock on record. U.S. cracks (refining margins) have doubled since the start of the conflict, with energy sector stocks in the U.S. gaining 3.22% on the week. Over the weekend, Brent approached $107/bbl as Trump cancelled the Islamabad talks.
Gold
Gold fell 2.99% on the week to $4,712.20/oz, snapping a five-week winning streak. The combination of a modestly firmer dollar, elevated inflation expectations that reinforced rate-hold (rather than rate-cut) expectations, and some reduction in immediate safe-haven demand weighed on the metal. Gold retains an approximately 11% year-to-date gain and a 15.7% one-year return, reflecting the structural bid from central bank buying and ongoing geopolitical uncertainty. The weekend’s renewed diplomatic breakdown is likely to provide some support heading into the new week.
Crypto
Bitcoin approached the $80,000 mark mid-week, supported by the Intel-driven risk-on sentiment and the broader AI earnings narrative. The cryptocurrency pulled back into the weekend, declining approximately 2.84% on the week, as the collapse of the Islamabad talks and renewed oil price pressure weighed on risk appetite. Bitcoin remains up approximately 9% year-to-date, having recovered from a trough loss approaching 23% earlier in the quarter.
Regional Summary
| Region | Summary |
| United States | S&P 500 +0.55% (record close), Nasdaq +1.50% (record close) on Intel earnings surge — DJIA -0.44% as gains concentrated in technology. Jobless claims 214K (slight uptick). US retail sales +1.7% MoM in March (strongest since 2023). Ceasefire extended indefinitely by Trump on Tuesday pending Iran’s unified proposal; blockade maintained. |
| Europe | STOXX 600 -2.54%, DAX -2.32%, CAC 40 -3.17%, FTSE 100 -2.70% as renewed Hormuz uncertainty and weak data weighed on sentiment. German Ifo Business Climate fell to 84.4 (lowest since May 2020); Germany halves 2026 GDP forecast to 0.5%. Eurozone Composite |
| Japan | Nikkei +2.96% to fresh all-time high (60,209). Trade surplus confirmed for March; exports rose for seventh straight month. BoJ meeting in focus for coming week — rate hike expectations recalibrated. JBIC announces 600bn yen energy security investment window. |
| China | CSI 300 +0.86%; Hang Seng -0.70%. PBOC held benchmark rates unchanged for the 11th consecutive month. China industrial profits +15.8% YoY in March. Sentiment cautious as elevated oil prices weigh on growth outlook. |
| Commodities | Brent crude closed at $101.91/bbl (+12.76% on week) as ceasefire extension uncertainty and continued Strait of Hormuz disruption drove oil higher. Gold -2.99% on week to $4,712/oz — five-week winning streak snapped as inflation fears and rate-hold expectations reduced safe-haven premium. |
| Crypto | Bitcoin approached $80,000 during the week before pulling back. Risk appetite split: tech-driven optimism from Intel earnings supported crypto mid-week; renewed Hormuz uncertainty capped gains into the weekend. |
Week Ahead
The week of 27 April–1 May is one of the most data-dense of the year. On the geopolitical front, the status of Iran’s “unified proposal” and any progress toward restarting the Islamabad peace process remain the dominant market catalyst. Any confirmed resumption of Strait of Hormuz shipping traffic, or further escalation will drive outsized moves in oil and global equities.
On the corporate side, five of the seven Magnificent 7 names report: Apple, Amazon, Meta, Alphabet and Microsoft. Over 40% of the S&P 500 by market cap reports during the week, making it the heaviest earnings week of Q1 2026 season. AI-related capital expenditure guidance and companies’ ability to manage higher energy costs will be closely scrutinised.
Disclaimer
This document has been prepared by Trivesta Funds Pty Ltd (ACN 627 270 900, AR 1274820), Corporate authorised representative of Trivesta Capital Ltd (AFSL 320497) for general information purposes only and is intended for wholesale clients only. It is not financial product advice and does not take into account your objectives, financial situation or needs. Before acting on any information, consider its appropriateness and seek independent professional advice.
The information is based on sources believed to be reliable, but no representation or warranty is made as to its accuracy, completeness or timeliness. Past performance is not a reliable indicator of future performance. Forward-looking statements are subject to risks and uncertainties, and actual outcomes may differ materially.
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