The week ended 4 September was dominated by U.S. economic data, and the message from that data was consistent: activity is firmer than the summer had suggested. The August employment report, released on Friday, showed non-farm payrolls rising 162,000 against a Dow Jones consensus of 53,000, with the unemployment rate unchanged at 4.1% (U.S. Department of Labor, September 2026). Revisions added a further 55,000 jobs across June and July, turning July from a reported contraction into a modest gain (U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics, September 2026).
The labour data followed a firm set of activity indicators earlier in the week. The ISM Services PMI rose to 55.4 in August from 54.1, its twenty-sixth consecutive month in expansion, with business activity climbing to 61.7 and new orders to 60.9 (Institute for Supply Management, September 2026). The ISM Manufacturing PMI eased to 54.6 from 55.6 but remained in expansion for an eighth straight month (Institute for Supply Management, September 2026). The Federal Reserve’s Beige Book, published on 2 September, described economic activity as increasing modestly since early July, with ten of twelve districts reporting growth in the slight to moderate range and two reporting no change (Federal Reserve Board, September 2026).
Markets did not treat this as unambiguously good news. With inflation still the Federal Reserve’s primary concern, stronger activity data raised the prospect of tighter rather than looser policy, and traders lifted the odds of a rate increase at this month’s meeting (Federal Reserve Board, September 2026). Equity indices finished the week mixed to lower, and gold declined as the prospect of higher rates weighed on non-yielding assets.
The most dramatic move came in energy. Brent crude futures (November 2026) rose 9.28% over the week to USD 96.28 per barrel amid ongoing Middle East supply concerns, reviving concern over supply through the Strait of Hormuz. Elevated energy prices also featured in the Beige Book as a source of business uncertainty, linking the geopolitical picture directly to the domestic inflation outlook.
Source: Reuters, Commodity Markets Report, 4 September 2026
MarketSnapshot
Weekly performance across major global indices (week ending 4th Sep 2026)
| Index | Friday’s Closing Price | WeeklyChange(%) | Direction | |
| DJIA | 53,414.25 | -0.27 | ▼ | |
| S&P500 | 7,718.60 | 0.09 | ▲ | |
| NASDAQComposite | 26,506.99 | 0.4 | ▲ | |
| FTSE100(UK) | 10,831.09 | 0.06 | ▲ | |
| CAC40(France) | 8,278.77 | -1.46 | ▼ | |
| STOXXEurope600 | 649.88 | -0.81 | ▼ | |
| Nikkei225(Japan) | 65,020.94 | -2.09 | ▼ | |
| CSI300(China) | 4,548.05 | -1.33 | ▼ | |
| HangSeng(HongKong) | 25,650.87 | 0.26 | ▲ | |
| BrentCrude | 96.28 | 9.28 | ▲ | |
| Gold | 4,476.60 | -1.18 | ▼ |
ForeignExchange
(For the week ending 4th Sep 2026)
| Pair | Friday’s Closing Price | Week’sChange |
| EUR/USD | 1.1616 | 0.26 |
| USD/JPY | 156.27 | -2.38 |
| GBP/USD | 1.3518 | -0.15 |
| USD/CHF | 0.8101 | 0.06 |
| AUD/USD | 0.7204 | 0.56 |
U.S. Markets Overview
U.S. equities finished the week mixed. The NASDAQ Composite added 0.40% and the S&P 500 was broadly flat at +0.09%, while the Dow Jones Industrial Average slipped 0.27%.
The week’s data flow was unusually concentrated. Weekly initial jobless claims for the week ending 29 August came in at 206,000, an increase of 2,000 on the prior week’s revised figure and close to expectations. The four-week moving average stood at 207,250, while continuing claims were 1,779,000 (U.S. Department of Labor, August 2026). Claims remain historically low, consistent with an environment of limited layoffs.
The Bureau of Labor Statistics report on Friday reset the picture. Payrolls rose 162,000, the strongest month since March and well above expectations, with gains concentrated in food services and drinking places (+59,000) and local government education (+42,000). Manufacturing added 16,000 while information-related employment fell 23,000 (U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics, September 2026). Average hourly earnings rose 0.3% over the month to USD 37.75 and 3.1% over the year, a pace consistent with gradually moderating wage pressure.
The gap between weaker high-frequency labour signals earlier in the week and the stronger official payrolls print was notable, and markets generally prioritised the BLS release.
Federal Reserve Governor Michael Barr spoke on 1 September at the Second-Chance Lending Forum in Washington, addressing the economic outlook and financial inclusion, including the labour market implications of artificial intelligence (Federal Reserve Board, September 2026).
European Markets
European equities were mixed to lower. The FTSE 100 was essentially unchanged at +0.06%, while the STOXX Europe 600 fell 0.81% and the CAC 40 declined 1.46%, the weakest of the major European benchmarks. Higher energy prices weighed on the region, which imports the large majority of its crude, and the prospect of firmer U.S. rates limited support from the external environment.
Asian Markets
Japan: Japanese equities were the weakest of the major markets, with the Nikkei 225 falling 2.09% to close at 65,020.94. The move coincided with a sharp strengthening of the yen, with USD/JPY declining 2.38% to 156.27 after trading above 160 the previous week. A stronger currency weighs directly on the earnings of Japan’s large exporter cohort.
China: Chinese markets were softer. The CSI 300 fell 1.33% to close at 4,548.05, while the Hang Seng Index bucked the regional trend, edging up 0.26% to 25,650.87.
Commodities
Oil (Brent Crude Futures): Brent settled at USD 96.28 a barrel, up 9.28% on the week and the strongest weekly performance since mid-July. The move followed the resumption of U.S.–Iran strikes for the first time in roughly a month, together with warnings of further escalation, reviving concern over transit through the Strait of Hormuz.
Gold (U.S. Gold Futures): Gold settled at USD 4,476.60 per ounce, down 1.18%. The decline reflected the shift in rate expectations following the stronger U.S. data, with higher expected yields raising the opportunity cost of holding a non-yielding asset — an effect that outweighed the safe-haven support that might otherwise have come from the escalation in the Middle East.
Week Ahead
Points of focus flowing from the week’s developments:
- U.S. inflation: With the labour market showing renewed strength and services prices paid at 72.6, upcoming inflation data becomes the decisive input for this month’s Federal Reserve decision. A cooler print would allow the Committee to discount the labour market strength; a firmer one would not.
- Federal Reserve communication: Markets are now pricing a meaningful probability of a rate increase. Commentary between now and the meeting will matter more than usual given how quickly expectations have repriced.
- Energy and geopolitics: Whether the escalation around the Strait of Hormuz persists is now a direct input into the inflation outlook, not merely a commodity story. The Beige Book already identified elevated energy prices as a source of business uncertainty.
- Japanese yen: A 2.38% weekly move in USD/JPY is significant. Attention turns to whether the strengthening reflects positioning, policy expectations, or intervention-related dynamics.
- The payrolls–ADP divergence: The BLS reported an increase of 162,000 in total non-farm payrolls, while ADP estimated an increase of 38,000 in private-sector employment. The series differ in scope and methodology and should not be treated as directly comparable.
- European growth: With energy costs rising and the euro area a net importer, the region’s inflation and growth data carry added weight in the coming weeks.
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