Executive Summary
Global markets were mixed in the week ending 2 October, with the U.S. market and the Federal Reserve’s October meeting outlook at the centre of investor attention. U.S. inflation, employment and economic growth data provided important signals for expectations around Federal Reserve monetary policy and interest rates.
U.S. data in focus
In the United States, the August core PCE price index, the Federal Reserve’s preferred measure of inflation, was released alongside the third estimate of second-quarter real GDP (U.S. Bureau of Economic Analysis, September 2026). Subsequently, the September U.S. jobs report, including nonfarm payrolls and the unemployment rate, closed the week (U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics, October 2026). Other key indicators included the Conference Board Consumer Confidence Index, August JOLTS job openings, ADP private payrolls and the September manufacturing PMIs.
International releases
Outside the United States, the Reserve Bank of Australia announced its September cash rate decision. Meanwhile, September euro area inflation provided the latest reading on consumer prices ahead of the European Central Bank’s next meeting. In the United Kingdom, the Office for National Statistics published its revised second-quarter GDP estimate. China also released its September manufacturing and non-manufacturing PMIs, alongside the Caixin China Manufacturing PMI, before mainland markets closed for the National Day holiday.
Markets and commodities
Across global stock markets, returns were mixed. Japan’s Nikkei 225 rose 2.93% to close at 68,309.46, while European equities declined broadly. In the U.S. market, the Nasdaq Composite gained 0.45%, whereas the Dow Jones Industrial Average fell 1.26% and the S&P 500 declined 0.27%.
Commodity markets also moved lower. Brent crude oil futures raise 4.94% to USD 102.25 a barrel, while U.S. gold futures declined 3.68% to USD 4,162.30 per ounce. Notably, the sharp decline in gold came as the U.S. dollar strengthened and investors reassessed the outlook for U.S. interest rates.
Overall, the week’s U.S. economic data reinforced the importance of inflation and labour market conditions for the Federal Reserve’s October meeting. Developments across Europe, Asia and Australia continued to shape the global market environment.
Market Snapshot
Weekly performance across major global indices (week ending 2 Oct 2026):
| Index | Closing Price | Weekly Change (%) | Direction |
| DJIA | 51,176.96 | -1.26 | ▼ |
| S&P 500 | 7,722.72 | -0.27 | ▼ |
| NASDAQ Composite | 27,190.86 | 0.45 | ▲ |
| FTSE 100 (UK) | 10,461.95 | -2.18 | ▼ |
| CAC 40 (France) | 7,897.19 | -2.24 | ▼ |
| STOXX Europe 600 | 631.35 | -1.14 | ▼ |
| Nikkei 225 (Japan) | 68,309.46 | 2.93 | ▲ |
| CSI 300 (China)* | 4,357.62 | -1.84 | ▼ |
| Hang Seng (Hong Kong) | 23,972.29 | -2.19 | ▼ |
| Brent Crude Futures | 102.25 | 4.94 | ▲ |
| U.S. Gold Futures | 4,162.30 | -3.68 | ▼ |
*CSI 300 change measured from the 24 September close to the 30 September close, with mainland Chinese markets closed on 25 September for the Mid-Autumn Festival and from 1 October for the National Day holiday.
Foreign Exchange
(For the week ending 2 Oct 2026)
U.S. Markets Overview
Major U.S. stock market indices finished the week mixed, with the Nasdaq Composite rising 0.45%, the S&P 500 easing 0.27% and the Dow Jones Industrial Average declining 1.26% (MarketWatch, October 2026).
Consumer confidence and job openings
On 29 September, the Conference Board Consumer Confidence Index provided an update on household views of current and expected economic, employment and income conditions. Alongside it came August JOLTS job openings, an indicator of U.S. labour market demand watched closely by the Federal Reserve (The Conference Board; U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics, September 2026).
Inflation and economic growth
On 30 September, the ADP National Employment Report provided an update on private-sector payroll growth. Consequently, it offered an early indication of employment trends ahead of the official U.S. jobs report (ADP Research, September 2026). Meanwhile, the Bureau of Economic Analysis released August core PCE inflation, the Federal Reserve’s preferred measure of underlying inflation, alongside the third estimate of second-quarter real GDP (U.S. Bureau of Economic Analysis, September 2026).
Manufacturing surveys and the jobs report
The following day brought weekly initial unemployment claims from the U.S. Department of Labor. In addition, two closely watched manufacturing surveys were released: the S&P Global Manufacturing PMI and the ISM Manufacturing PMI (S&P Global; Institute for Supply Management, October 2026).
Finally, the week concluded with the September U.S. jobs report, including nonfarm payrolls and the unemployment rate (U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics, October 2026). Together with the core PCE data, the employment report provided important signals for the Federal Reserve’s October meeting and expectations for the next stage of U.S. monetary policy.
European Markets
European equities declined over the week, with the CAC 40 falling 2.24%, the FTSE 100 easing 2.18% and the STOXX Europe 600 declining 1.14% (MarketWatch, October 2026).
On the inflation front, Eurostat published its flash estimate of September euro area inflation on 2 October. As a result, markets gained the latest reading on consumer prices ahead of the European Central Bank’s next policy meeting (Eurostat, October 2026). In the United Kingdom, meanwhile, the Office for National Statistics released its revised second-quarter GDP estimate on 30 September, covering both quarterly and annual economic growth (Office for National Statistics, September 2026).
Asian Markets
Japan
Japanese equities outperformed other major Asian and global equity markets, with the Nikkei 225 rising 2.93% over the week to close at 68,309.46 (MarketWatch, October 2026). Meanwhile, the Japanese yen weakened modestly against the U.S. dollar, with USD/JPY rising 0.36% to close at 157.85 (MarketWatch, October 2026).
China
Chinese markets declined, with the CSI 300 falling 1.84% and Hong Kong’s Hang Seng Index easing 2.19% to close at 23,972.29 (MarketWatch, October 2026). China’s September data included the official manufacturing and non-manufacturing PMIs released on 30 September. While the non-manufacturing PMI covers services and construction activity, the Caixin China Manufacturing PMI provides an additional measure with greater exposure to smaller, private and export-oriented companies (National Bureau of Statistics of China; Caixin and S&P Global, September 2026).
*Mainland Chinese stock markets were closed from 1 October for the National Day holiday. The weekly CSI 300 performance reflects the 30 September close compared with the 24 September close, with mainland markets also closed on 25 September for the Mid-Autumn Festival.
Australia: The Reserve Bank of Australia (RBA) announced its September cash rate decision on 29 September, providing an important signal for the outlook for Australian monetary policy, interest rates and the Australian dollar (Reserve Bank of Australia, September 2026). The Australian dollar weakened against the U.S. dollar over the week, with AUD/USD declining 1.03% to close at 0.6951 (MarketWatch, October 2026).
Commodities
Oil (Brent Crude Futures): Brent crude futures (BZ=F) settled at USD 102.25 a barrel, raised 4.94% from the previous Friday (Reuters; MarketWatch, October 2026), holding above the USD 100 level for a second consecutive week.
Gold (U.S. Gold Futures): U.S. gold futures (GC=F, December 2026) settled at USD 4,162.30 per ounce, down 3.68% from the previous Friday (Reuters; MarketWatch, October 2026). The decline was the metal’s sharpest weekly fall in recent months, with a stronger U.S. dollar contributing to the move across the week.
Week Ahead
The key issues for the U.S. market and global investors heading into the week ahead include:
- Federal Reserve October meeting and U.S. interest rates: With the August core PCE index and September jobs report now released, investors will assess how the data affects expectations for the October meeting.
- U.S. labour market: The September employment report, ADP private payrolls and JOLTS job openings together provide a broad view of labour market conditions. Investors will assess whether hiring momentum is slowing.
- U.S. market outlook: U.S. equities finished mixed, with the Nasdaq gaining while the S&P 500 and Dow declined. Investors will continue to assess how rate expectations influence stock market performance.
- Gold prices and the U.S. dollar: Gold recorded one of its sharpest weekly declines in recent months. Markets will assess whether the move reflects dollar strength, changing rate expectations or broader portfolio repositioning.
- European inflation and ECB policy: September euro area flash CPI provides the latest indication of inflationary pressure ahead of the ECB’s next meeting. European stocks enter the new week after broad declines.
- Chinese stocks and China PMI: Mainland markets remain closed for the National Day holiday. Investors will reassess September PMI data when markets reopen.
- Australian dollar and RBA policy: Following the RBA’s September decision, the Australian dollar weakened 1.03%. The relative outlook for RBA and Federal Reserve policy remains an important driver of AUD/USD.
- Japanese stocks and Nikkei 225: The Nikkei extended its advance for a second consecutive week. Investors will monitor whether Japanese stocks maintain strength alongside movements in the yen.
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