Executive Summary
Global equity markets extended their recovery over the week ending 10 April 2026, as a conditional two-week ceasefire between the U.S. and Iran — contingent on the reopening of the Strait of Hormuz — triggered a decisive shift in risk sentiment. The agreement, while fragile, removed the most acute near-term fears of a wider conflict and drove broad gains across equities, with oil recording its sharpest daily decline since 2020.
Market Snapshot
Weekly performance across major global indices (week ending 10 April 2026):
| Index | Friday’s Closing Price | Weekly Change | Direction |
| DJIA | 47,916.57 | 3.04 | ▲ |
| S&P 500 | 6,816.89 | 3.56 | ▲ |
| NASDAQ Composite | 22,902.90 | 4.68 | ▲ |
| FTSE 100 (UK) | 10,600.53 | 1.57 | ▲ |
| CAC 40 (France) | 8,259.60 | 3.73 | ▲ |
| STOXX Europe 600 | 614.84 | 3.05 | ▲ |
| Nikkei 225 (Japan) | 56,426.38 | 7.55 | ▲ |
| CSI 300 (China) | 4,636.57 | 3.52 | ▲ |
| Hang Seng (Hong Kong) | 25,893.54 | 3.09 | ▲ |
| Brent Crude | 95.2 / bbl | -12.68 | ▼ |
| Gold | 4761.9 / oz | 2.37 | ▲ |
Foreign Exchange
(For the week ending 10 April 2026)
| Pair | Friday’s Close | Week’s Change |
| EUR/USD | 1.1691 | 0.1 (0.86%) |
| USD/JPY | 159.112 | 0.424 (0.27%) |
| GBP/USD | 1.343 | 0.0127 (0.95%) |
| USD/CHF | 0.7909 | -0.0031 (-0.39%) |
| AUD/USD | 0.7076 | 0.0215 (3.13%) |
U.S. Markets Overview
Equities and Policy
U.S. equity indexes posted solid gains for a second consecutive week, as the temporary U.S.-Iran ceasefire agreement initially supported risk sentiment and enthusiasm around artificial intelligence infrastructure spending provided an additional tailwind for technology and semiconductor stocks. The Nasdaq Composite led the advance with a 4.68% gain, while the S&P 500 and Dow Jones Industrial Average rose 3.56% and 3.04% respectively. All major S&P 500 sectors advanced with the exception of energy, which came under pressure mid-week as oil prices fell sharply on ceasefire news — though those moves have since reversed materially following weekend developments (see Commodities). U.S. Treasuries also generated positive returns over the week.
Markets opened cautiously as investors weighed escalating rhetoric around energy infrastructure and shipping through the Strait of Hormuz. Sentiment shifted decisively midweek following reports of a two-week ceasefire framework and continued negotiations, fuelling a broad risk-on rally. Oil prices — which had moved sharply higher in recent weeks — recorded their steepest single-day decline since 2020. Additional reports suggesting that Israel and Lebanon may hold talks provided further support to equities late in the week, though uncertainty remained elevated heading into the weekend.
Economic Data
Inflation data for March showed continued upward pressure. The Consumer Price Index rose 3.3% year over year, accelerating from 2.4% in February and reaching its fastest pace since mid-2024, driven primarily by a sharp surge in gasoline prices. Core CPI, which excludes food and energy, rose a more modest 2.6% year over year. The Federal Reserve’s preferred inflation gauge — the core Personal Consumption Expenditures index — rose 3.0% year over year in February, broadly in line with expectations, though these figures largely predate the full impact of the Iran conflict.
GDP growth for the fourth quarter of 2025 was revised down to an annualised rate of 0.5% from the prior estimate of 0.7%, reflecting lower levels of capital investment. Personal income declined 0.1% in February, while personal spending rose 0.5% month over month.
Post-Close Developments (Weekend, 12–13 April):
The ceasefire has since collapsed. Vice President Vance announced on Sunday that talks with Iran had failed, and President Trump declared a naval blockade of the Strait of Hormuz. Brent crude surged approximately 7% and U.S. crude soared approximately 8% in early trading, sharply reversing the prior week’s relief rally. The risk-on framing embedded in the week’s equity performance should be read with this context in mind; markets are likely to open under significant pressure.
Fixed Income
U.S. Treasuries generated positive returns over the week. Yields edged modestly higher ahead of CPI data before stabilising, with the 10-year note ending the week at approximately 4.29%. Futures markets continued to price in no change at the Fed’s upcoming April meeting, with a modest cumulative eight basis points of cuts anticipated by year-end 2026. The 30-year fixed mortgage rate declined nine basis points to 6.37% for the week ending 9 April. The renewed geopolitical escalation over the weekend may prompt a reassessment of the rate path, given the additional inflationary impulse from higher energy prices.
European Markets
Pan-European equities advanced broadly, with the STOXX Europe 600 rising 3.05% in local currency terms. Markets rallied on Tuesday following news of the U.S.-Iran ceasefire agreement, with sentiment supported by hopes that the worst-case scenario for regional energy supply had been avoided. Germany’s DAX gained 2.74%, Italy’s FTSE MIB rose 4.35%, France’s CAC 40 climbed 3.73%, and the UK’s FTSE 100 advanced 1.57%. Regional markets were closed for Easter Monday. Those gains now face a direct headwind from the ceasefire’s collapse and the declared blockade.
Despite the improved intra-week sentiment, the economic backdrop remained challenging. EU Economy Commissioner Valdis Dombrovskis signalled that the bloc is preparing to cut its official 2026 growth forecasts in May, cautioning that even a short-lived conflict could reduce EU growth by 0.4%, with more severe disruption potentially shaving 0.6% off regional GDP — raising the risk of a stagflationary environment of weak growth and elevated inflation. The weekend developments increase the probability of the more severe scenario.
German factory orders rose just 0.9% month over month in February, well below the 2.0% increase anticipated, though gains in automotive, textiles, and metals provided partial support. Services activity contracted in both France and Italy during March, with the French Services PMI falling to 48.8 amid subdued client spending ahead of local elections and ongoing geopolitical uncertainty. In the UK, house prices rose just 0.8% year over year in March, below both the expected 1.5% and February’s 1.2% pace.
Asian Markets
Japan
Japanese equity markets staged a strong rebound over the week, with the Nikkei 225 surging 7.55% and the broader TOPIX gaining 2.60%. The temporary ceasefire agreement removed the most acute near-term fears for Japan’s oil-import-dependent economy, triggering a relief rally concentrated on technology stocks and exporters that had been hardest hit during the prior escalation. However, given Japan’s particular vulnerability to energy import costs, the ceasefire’s collapse and the Strait of Hormuz blockade represent a material adverse development; much of the week’s relief rally may prove short-lived. The Japanese government announced an additional release from state oil reserves to begin next month, continuing efforts to stabilise domestic energy costs.
Wholesale inflation, as measured by the corporate goods price index, rose 2.6% year over year in March — ahead of expectations and driven primarily by petroleum and hydrocarbon chemicals. Real wages grew 1.9% year over year in February, the fastest pace since 2021, supported in part by government utility subsidies moderating inflation temporarily. Consumer confidence deteriorated sharply to 33.3 in March, well below the consensus forecast of 38.3, reflecting heightened household concern over fuel prices. The 10-year JGB yield rose to 2.42%, hovering near its highest level since 1997, as markets continued to price in the likelihood of a Bank of Japan rate rise at its April meeting. The yen stabilised around JPY 159 against the U.S. dollar following midweek strength on ceasefire news.
China
Chinese equity markets ended the week solidly higher, with the CSI 300 rising 3.52%, the Shanghai Composite gaining 2.74%, and Hong Kong’s Hang Seng advancing 3.09%. Mainland markets closed Monday for the Qingming Festival, and Hong Kong markets were shut for both Easter and local public holidays on Monday and Tuesday.
China’s factory gate prices rose 0.5% year over year in March — the first positive PPI reading in more than three years — driven primarily by higher commodity and energy costs rather than a broad-based pickup in demand. Consumer prices rose 1.0% year over year, easing from 1.3% in February as seasonal demand softened following the Lunar New Year period. China’s securities regulator also implemented tightened rules on short-term trading by major shareholders and executives, expanding oversight across equities, depositary receipts, and convertible bonds. In a separate development, Chinese leader Xi Jinping met with the leader of Taiwan’s main opposition party in Beijing — the first such high-level meeting since 2016 — ahead of a planned U.S. presidential visit to Beijing in mid-May.
Commodities
Oil
Brent crude fell sharply during the week, declining 12.68% to settle near $95/barrel — the steepest weekly decline since 2020 — as the ceasefire agreement significantly reduced immediate fears of supply disruption through the Strait of Hormuz. However, those moves have reversed sharply following weekend developments. With Vice President Vance confirming the failure of Iran talks and President Trump announcing a naval blockade of the Strait of Hormuz, Brent crude surged approximately 7% and U.S. crude soared approximately 8% in early trading on Monday. The week’s closing price of ~$95/barrel should therefore be treated as a temporary trough rather than a new baseline.
The path to full supply normalisation — already complex before the ceasefire collapsed — now appears considerably more distant. An estimated 175 million barrels of oil and other energy shipments remain effectively trapped in the Gulf, and the EIA estimated that approximately 7.5 million barrels per day of output was offline in March — roughly one-third of February’s production — with that figure expected to rise further in April. With more than one-third of the region’s refinery capacity reported to have been targeted during the conflict, refined product prices and margins may remain elevated even if crude were to ease. A blockade of the Strait makes near-term resolution substantially less likely.
Gold
Gold advanced 2.37% to approximately $4,762/oz as of 10th April 2026, reflecting residual safe-haven demand as investors remained cautious about the durability of the ceasefire and the broader geopolitical outlook. With the ceasefire now confirmed to have collapsed, safe-haven demand is likely to intensify further.
Crypto
Bitcoin continued to benefit from the broader risk-on shift during the week, supported by improving geopolitical sentiment and growing expectations that the ceasefire may hold. Institutional positioning remained steady, with spot bitcoin ETFs and digital asset treasury companies holding approximately 12% of total supply — up from 8.7% a year earlier — underscoring the continued maturation of institutional participation in the asset class. The risk-on tone that supported crypto through the week may face pressure as the renewed escalation is digested by markets.
Regional Summary
| Region | Summary |
| United States | S&P 500 +3.56%, Nasdaq +4.68% on ceasefire relief — now reversed after blockade declaration; equity gains at risk. CPI +3.3% YoY; Core CPI +2.6%. Consumer sentiment fell to 47.6; 1yr inflation expectations at 4.8%. GDP Q4 2025 revised to +0.5% annualised. |
| Europe | STOXX 600 +3.05%, CAC 40 +3.73% on ceasefire optimism — blockade raises probability of the EU’s severe disruption scenario (−0.6% GDP); stagflation risk elevated. German factory orders below forecast; UK house prices +0.8% YoY. |
| Japan | Nikkei +7.55% on ceasefire relief — largely at risk of reversal given Japan’s oil-import dependence and the Strait blockade. Wholesale inflation +2.6% YoY; real wages +1.9% YoY. Consumer confidence 33.3, well below forecast. JGB 10yr yield at 2.42%. |
| China | CSI 300 +3.52%; Hang Seng +3.09%. PPI turns positive (+0.5% YoY) for first time in 3+ years. Tighter short-selling rules implemented. Xi meets Taiwan’s opposition leader. |
| Commodities | Brent closed at ~$95/bbl (−12.68% on week) — treat as a temporary trough; Brent +~7% and U.S. crude +~8% Monday after blockade announcement. Gold ~$4,762/oz (+2.37%); safe-haven demand likely to accelerate. Gulf shipping backlog and refinery damage complicate recovery. |
| Crypto | Bitcoin advanced on risk-on sentiment; institutional holdings at ~12% of supply. Risk-on tailwind faces headwinds from renewed escalation. |
Week Ahead
Market attention in the week of 13–17 April will be dominated by the Strait of Hormuz blockade following the ceasefire collapse — any signal of renewed negotiations will be the most significant market catalyst. On the data front, U.S. PPI (Tuesday), Import/Export Price Indexes (Wednesday), the Fed Beige Book, and March industrial production will be watched for inflation pass-through from higher energy costs. China’s Q1 GDP alongside March industrial production and retail sales, and Japan’s wages and inflation data ahead of the BoJ’s April decision, are the key Asian releases. U.S. Q1 earnings season is also underway with major financials reporting throughout the week; guidance on energy cost exposure will be closely scrutinised.
Disclaimer
This document has been prepared by Trivesta Funds Pty Ltd (ACN 627 270 900, AR 1274820), Corporate authorised representative of Trivesta Capital Ltd (AFSL 320497) for general information purposes only and is intended for wholesale clients only. It is not financial product advice and does not take into account your objectives, financial situation or needs. Before acting on any information, consider its appropriateness and seek independent professional advice.
The information is based on sources believed to be reliable, but no representation or warranty is made as to its accuracy, completeness or timeliness. Past performance is not a reliable indicator of future performance. Forward-looking statements are subject to risks and uncertainties, and actual outcomes may differ materially.
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