Brent crude surged 5.86% to USD 76.01 after renewed Middle East tensions, driving inflation concerns across global markets. The ceasefire between the U.S. and Iran collapsed and the two sides exchanged strikes while continuing negotiations, weighing on Europe and Japan, which relies on imported oil.
U.S. markets proved more resilient: a late week rebound in semiconductor and artificial intelligence shares lifted the NASDAQ Composite 1.74% and the S&P 500 1.23%, even as the June Fed minutes revealed that a few policymakers saw a case for raising rates. The hawkish undertone was echoed globally, with markets raising expectations of ECB tightening and the Reserve Bank of New Zealand delivering its first rate hike in three years. Hong Kong’s Hang Seng was the week’s standout, up 3.53%. Attention now shifts to a packed calendar: the start of Q2 earnings season, U.S. inflation and retail sales data, and China’s Q2 GDP.
Market Snapshot
Weekly performance across major global indices (week ending 10 Jul 2026):
| Index | Friday’s Closing Price | Weekly Change (%) | Direction |
| DJIA | 52,637.01 | -0.5 % | ▼ |
| S&P 500 | 7,575.39 | +1.23 % | ▲ |
| NASDAQ Composite | 26,281.61 | +1.74 % | ▲ |
| FTSE 100 (UK) | 10,497.29 | -1.7 % | ▼ |
| CAC 40 (France) | 8,338.97 | -1.99 % | ▼ |
| STOXX Europe 600 | 641.1 | -1.79 % | ▼ |
| Nikkei 225 (Japan) | 68,557.73 | -2.01 % | ▼ |
| CSI 300 (China) | 4,780.79 | -1.27 % | ▼ |
| Hang Seng (Hong Kong) | 24,175.12 | +3.53 % | ▲ |
| Brent Crude | 76.01 | +5.86 % | ▲ |
| Gold | 4,104.10 | -0.21 % | ▼ |
Foreign Exchange
(For the week ending 10 Jul 2026)
| Pair | Friday’s Close | Week’s Change |
| EUR/USD | 1.1433 | + 0.09% |
| USD/JPY | 162.363 | + 0.57% |
| GBP/USD | 1.3416 | + 0.58% |
| USD/CHF | 0.8065 | + 0.26% |
| AUD/USD | 0.6944 | + 0.4% |
U.S. Markets Overview
Major U.S. indexes closed the week mixed. A late week rebound in semiconductor and AI related shares helped the NASDAQ Composite and the S&P 500 overcome earlier volatility driven by higher oil prices and renewed hostilities between the U.S. and Iran, while the Dow Jones Industrial Average and small caps lagged. Information technology led sector performance within the S&P 500, with energy and communication services also strong, while materials and health care underperformed. Growth stocks solidly outpaced value.
Minutes from the June Fed minutes showed that a few policymakers saw a case for raising interest rates, and most supported removing language that had implied an easing bias. Treasury yields moved higher on the combination of rising oil prices and the hawkish minutes, with the 10 year yield climbing to around 4.56% from 4.49%. Elsewhere, the data calendar was light: the ISM services index eased to 54.0 but remained in expansion, initial jobless claims edged down to 215,000, and existing home sales fell 2.4% in June as affordability pressures persisted.
What we are watching: with volumes light ahead of earnings season, the market’s rotation back into AI and semiconductor names suggests investors continue to treat geopolitical shocks as buying opportunities in technology. Q2 results will test that conviction.
European Markets
European equities fell broadly as the collapse of the U.S. and Iran ceasefire pushed energy prices higher and revived inflation concerns, prompting markets to raise expectations for European Central Bank tightening. Germany’s DAX fell 2.76%, the sharpest decline among major bourses, reflecting the region’s sensitivity to energy costs.
The economic picture was more constructive than the price action suggested. German inflation eased to 2.3% in June, German exports unexpectedly rose 0.9% on stronger shipments to the U.S., and Dutch household consumption grew at its fastest pace in over a year. In the UK, political transition took shape as Andy Burnham secured the backing of a majority of Labour MPs to succeed Keir Starmer, with a formal announcement expected on Friday 17 July.
What we are watching: the gap between improving European economic data and rising energy driven inflation risk. How the ECB weighs these forces will be a key driver for EUR crosses in coming weeks.
Asian Markets
Japan
The Nikkei 225 fell 2.01% as renewed Middle East tensions and higher oil prices weighed on sentiment, given Japan’s reliance on imported energy, alongside profit taking in technology shares. Wholesale inflation accelerated, with the corporate goods price index up 7.1% year on year as firms passed on higher fuel and metals costs. The 10 year JGB yield briefly touched its highest level since 1996 before retreating after Finance Minister Katayama called on pension funds to lift allocations to domestic assets, remarks that also helped the yen recover late in the week after softening to the 162 range against the U.S. dollar.
China
Mainland and Hong Kong markets diverged sharply. The CSI 300 fell 1.27% despite a strong but narrow rally in AI, semiconductor and technology self sufficiency names, which reversed on Friday profit taking. The Hang Seng surged 3.53%, helped by strength in large internet, health care and materials stocks. June inflation data showed subdued consumer demand, with CPI up 1.0%, while producer prices rose 4.1%, the fastest pace since July 2022, on stronger upstream commodity prices. The PBOC reiterated a supportive but targeted policy stance, stopping short of broad stimulus.
What we are watching: China’s Q2 GDP and June activity data this week will show whether upstream strength is translating into broader growth momentum.
Commodities
Oil
Brent crude jumped 5.86% to USD 76.01 as the U.S. and Iran ceasefire collapsed and the two countries exchanged strikes. Supply risk premiums returned quickly, and the move fed directly into inflation expectations, Treasury yields and central bank commentary worldwide. Negotiations between the two sides are continuing, keeping headline risk elevated in both directions.
Gold
Gold slipped 0.21% to USD 4,104.10, consolidating near record territory. The modest pullback despite escalating geopolitical tensions suggests safe haven demand was offset by rising bond yields and a firmer U.S. dollar over the week.
Week Ahead
- U.S. Q2 earnings season begins, with major banks reporting first. Results and guidance will test the market’s renewed appetite for technology and growth names.
- U.S. June CPI and retail sales are due, the key inputs after the June Fed minutes signalled a more hawkish lean in its June minutes.
- China releases Q2 GDP and June activity data, a broad health check on growth momentum after mixed inflation figures.
- UK leadership transition: Labour is expected to formally confirm Andy Burnham as party leader on Friday 17 July, with a handover in Downing Street anticipated the following Monday.
- U.S. and Iran negotiations continue. Any progress or escalation is likely to move oil prices, and with them inflation expectations and currency markets, in either direction.
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