Executive Summary
Global equity markets extended their recovery for a third consecutive week over the period ending 17 April 2026, as de-escalating tensions in the Middle East — culminating in Iran’s Foreign Minister declaring the Strait of Hormuz ‘completely open’ for commercial vessels on Friday — triggered a decisive risk-on surge. The S&P 500 and Nasdaq Composite both closed at record highs, while Brent crude plunged approximately 9% on Friday.
Those gains are now substantially at risk. By Saturday, Iran’s Revolutionary Guard declared the Strait closed again. Ships came under attack from projectiles and small boats. On Sunday, the U.S. Navy intercepted and seized an Iranian-flagged vessel after disabling its propulsion system, while President Trump threatened to destroy Iranian power infrastructure if a deal is not reached. Oil futures surged approximately 7% in Sunday overnight trading, with Brent approaching $95.59. Equity futures opened sharply lower. The ceasefire expires Tuesday 21 April, and a second round of peace talks in Islamabad remains uncertain.
As with the prior week, the Friday closing prices provided in this report reflect a temporary market state that has already been materially overtaken by events.
Market Snapshot
Weekly performance across major global indices (week ending 17 April 2026) Note: Friday’s close prices are stated below. Given significant weekend developments — including renewed attacks in the Strait of Hormuz and a U.S. Navy seizure of an Iranian vessel, the current market conditions may differ from these closing levels.
| Index | Friday’s Closing Price | Weekly Change (%) | Direction |
| DJIA | 49,447.43 | 3.19 | ▲ |
| S&P 500 | 7,126.06 | 4.54 | ▲ |
| NASDAQ Composite | 24,468.48 | 6.84 | ▲ |
| FTSE 100 (UK) | 10,667.63 | 0.63 | ▲ |
| CAC 40 (France) | 8,425.13 | 2.00 | ▲ |
| STOXX Europe 600 | 626.58 | 1.91 | ▲ |
| Nikkei 225 (Japan) | 58,475.90 | 3.63 | ▲ |
| CSI 300 (China) | 4,728.67 | 1.99 | ▲ |
| Hang Seng (Hong Kong) | 26,160.33 | 1.03 | ▲ |
| Brent Crude | 90.38 / bbl | -5.06 | ▼ |
| Gold | 4857.6 / oz | 2.01 | ▲ |
Foreign Exchange
(For the week ending 17 April 2026)
| Pair | Friday’s Close | Week’s Change |
| EUR/USD | 1.1783 | 0.0092 (0.79%) |
| USD/JPY | 159.195 | 0.083 (0.05%) |
| GBP/USD | 1.3526 | 0.0096 (0.71%) |
| USD/CHF | 0.7832 | -0.0077 (-0.97%) |
| AUD/USD | 0.7159 | 0.0083 (1.17%) |
U.S. Markets Overview
Equities and Policy
U.S. equity indexes posted their third consecutive week of strong gains, with both the S&P 500 and Nasdaq Composite closing at record highs on Friday, marking the S&P 500’s first all-time high since January. The Nasdaq led with a 6.84% advance, the S&P 500 gained 4.54% and the DJIA added 3.19%. Technology and AI-linked names drove the rally, with Oracle, Nvidia, Amazon, Microsoft and Palantir among the notable outperformers. The VIX closed at 17.48, its lowest level since the war began.
Markets opened cautiously following the prior weekend’s blockade announcement, then recovered steadily as ceasefire optimism built through the week. The decisive catalyst came on Friday when Iran’s Foreign Minister declared the Strait of Hormuz ‘completely open’ for commercial vessels, coinciding with a 10-day Israel-Lebanon ceasefire. The announcement sent the S&P 500 and Nasdaq to record closes and Brent crude plunging approximately 9%.
Post-Close Developments (Weekend, 19-20 April)
The situation reversed sharply within hours. By Saturday, Iran’s Revolutionary Guard declared the Strait closed again and ships came under attack from projectiles and small boats. On Sunday, the U.S. Navy destroyer USS Spruance intercepted and disabled the Iranian-flagged M/V Touska after it failed to comply with blockade orders, with U.S. Marines subsequently taking custody of the vessel. President Trump threatened to destroy Iranian power infrastructure if a deal is not reached. Whether the second round of talks in Islamabad will proceed remains uncertain, with Iran citing the U.S. naval blockade as grounds not to attend.
Brent crude surged approximately 5.8% to around $95.59 in Sunday night trading and WTI rose approximately 7% to $89.74. S&P 500 futures fell 0.67%, Dow futures fell 0.82% and Nasdaq futures slipped 0.57%. Friday’s record closes should be read in the context of a market that had not yet priced the weekend’s events.
Economic Data
The economic backdrop was broadly constructive. March PPI rose 0.5% month over month, below the approximately 1.0% estimate, with flat services inflation driving the softer reading. Core PPI rose just 0.1%, well below consensus. Initial jobless claims for the week ended 11 April fell to 207,000, down from 218,000 the prior week. Regional manufacturing surveys pointed to a pickup in activity, with the Empire State index rising to 11.0 and the Philadelphia Fed index climbing to 26.7, though price measures in both were elevated. Existing home sales fell 3.6% in March to 3.98 million annualised, and the NAHB Housing Market Index dropped 4 points to 34 in April, reflecting ongoing affordability constraints.
Fixed Income
U.S. Treasuries generated positive returns over the week, with yields declining on Friday as the Hormuz announcement eased near-term inflation expectations. The 10-year yield ended the week around 4.25-4.28%, with high-yield bonds outperforming on improved risk sentiment. Futures markets continued to price minimal rate cuts for 2026. The renewed weekend escalation is likely to prompt a reassessment at Monday’s open.
European Markets
Pan-European equities extended their recovery, with the STOXX Europe 600 rising 1.91% in local currency terms. Germany’s DAX led with a 3.77% advance, France’s CAC 40 gained 2.00%, Italy’s FTSE MIB rose 2.65% and the UK’s FTSE 100 added 0.63%. Sentiment was supported by ceasefire optimism throughout the week before Friday’s Hormuz announcement provided a final lift.
The macro backdrop remained challenging despite the equity gains. The IMF cut its 2026 eurozone growth forecast to 1.1% from 1.3%, warning of a potential major energy crisis, and reduced its UK forecast to 0.8%, the largest G7 downgrade. ECB policymakers signalled no rush to raise interest rates. German wholesale prices surged 4.1% year over year in March. On a brighter note, eurozone industrial production grew 0.4% month over month in February, and the UK economy expanded 0.5% MoM, well ahead of the 0.1% estimate.
Asian Markets
Japan
The Nikkei 225 gained 3.63% and reached a fresh all-time high, with the advance driven by a return of pre-war market themes including AI enthusiasm, solid earnings expectations and corporate governance reform. Given Japan’s dependence on energy imports, the weekend’s renewed Strait of Hormuz disruption represents a significant near-term risk to this recovery.
Bank of Japan Governor Kazuo Ueda declined to telegraph a rate hike at the upcoming April meeting, citing the complexity of responding simultaneously to an energy price shock and weakening demand. Rate hike expectations receded as a result. The 10-year JGB yield held around 2.41% and the yen traded mostly in the JPY 159 range. The monthly Reuters Tankan poll showed manufacturer confidence falling 11 points to 7, the sharpest monthly decline in over three years.
China
The CSI 300 rose 1.99%, the Shanghai Composite gained 1.64% and Hong Kong’s Hang Seng advanced 1.03%. China’s Q1 2026 GDP expanded 5.0% year over year, ahead of the 4.8% estimate and an acceleration from 4.5% in Q4 2025, supported by export strength and solid industrial output. March retail sales growth slowed to 1.7% year over year and property investment contracted 11.2% in the first quarter. Export growth also slowed sharply in March to 2.5% year over year, down from 21.8% in the first two months of the year, while imports surged 27.8%, partly reflecting higher energy costs.
Commodities
Oil
Brent crude hovered near $97-99 for much of the week before plunging approximately 9% on Friday to settle at around $90.38/barrel, following Iran’s declaration that the Strait of Hormuz was open for commercial traffic. WTI closed at approximately $83.85/barrel. Those moves have already reversed sharply. By Saturday Iran’s Revolutionary Guard declared the Strait closed again, ships came under attack, and Sunday night saw Brent surge approximately 5.8% to around $95.59 as the U.S. Navy seized an Iranian vessel. The ceasefire expires Tuesday 21 April, and a second round of negotiations remains uncertain. Friday’s closing price should be treated as a temporary trough, not a new baseline. According to the IEA’s April 2026 Oil Market Report, Strait shipments averaged just 3.8 million barrels per day in early April, down from over 20 million barrels per day in February.
Gold
Gold advanced for a fourth consecutive week, gaining approximately 1.47% on Friday to around $4,867.92 per ounce. Mid-week de-escalation signals tempered some safe-haven demand, but the structural bid from dollar weakness, central bank buying and ongoing geopolitical uncertainty provided support. The weekend’s renewed escalation is likely to reinforce that safe-haven bid heading into the new week.
Crypto
Bitcoin extended gains during the week, benefiting from the broader risk-on sentiment and easing geopolitical fears, trading above $75,000 by Friday. Bitcoin spot ETFs recorded net inflows of approximately $786 million for the week ended 11 April, the strongest weekly inflow since late February. The risk-on tailwind may face pressure as the renewed Hormuz escalation is digested by markets at Monday’s open.
Regional Summary
| Region | Summary |
| United States | S&P 500 +4.54% (record), Nasdaq +6.84% (record) on Friday Hormuz optimism — already reversing on renewed escalation. PPI +0.5% MoM (below est.); jobless claims 207K. Q1 earnings season strong: BofA, Morgan Stanley, Goldman Sachs all beat. Housing remains weak. |
| Europe | STOXX 600 +1.91%, DAX +3.77% on ceasefire optimism. IMF cuts eurozone 2026 growth to 1.1% and UK to 0.8% (largest G7 downgrade). German wholesale prices +4.1% YoY. UK GDP +0.5% MoM — positive surprise. ECB signals no rush to hike. |
| Japan | Nikkei +3.63% to all-time high on AI/earnings themes and ceasefire optimism. BoJ rate hike expectations recede; Ueda avoids forward guidance. |
| China | CSI 300 +1.99%; Hang Seng +1.03%. Q1 GDP +5.0% YoY (beats 4.8% est.); industrial production +5.7% YoY. Retail sales slow to +1.7% YoY. Property investment −11.2% in Q1. Exports slowed sharply in March (+2.5% YoY from 21.8%). |
| Commodities | Brent closed ~$90.38/bbl (−9.07% on Friday) on Hormuz opening — treat as temporary; already ~$95.59 Sunday on renewed military exchanges. Ceasefire expires Tuesday. Gold ~$4,868/oz, fourth consecutive weekly gain; weekend escalation likely to lift further. |
| Crypto | Bitcoin above $75,000 by Friday; ETF inflows ~$786M (best since Feb). Risk-on tailwind faces headwinds from renewed weekend escalation. |
Week Ahead
The overriding focus in the week of 20-24 April will be the U.S.-Iran ceasefire expiry on Tuesday 21 April and whether a second round of peace talks in Islamabad proceeds. Any signal of renewed diplomatic engagement or further escalation will be the dominant market catalyst. On the data front, flash U.S. PMIs for April (Wednesday) and initial jobless claims (Thursday) will be watched for early signs of conflict-related slowdown or inflation pass-through. In Asia, Japan’s national CPI (Friday) and China’s loan prime rates (Monday) are the key releases. The BoJ April meeting is also in focus after Ueda’s dovish tone last week. Q1 earnings season continues with the majority of S&P 500 companies still to report; energy cost guidance will be closely scrutinised
Disclaimer
This document has been prepared by Trivesta Funds Pty Ltd (ACN 627 270 900, AR 1274820), Corporate authorised representative of Trivesta Capital Ltd (AFSL 320497) for general information purposes only and is intended for wholesale clients only. It is not financial product advice and does not take into account your objectives, financial situation or needs. Before acting on any information, consider its appropriateness and seek independent professional advice.
The information is based on sources believed to be reliable, but no representation or warranty is made as to its accuracy, completeness or timeliness. Past performance is not a reliable indicator of future performance. Forward-looking statements are subject to risks and uncertainties, and actual outcomes may differ materially.
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